Thursday, October 30, 2014

It's not over until the female with the gland issue sings...........

I did not pay much attention to the buy-elections, especially this one since it fell so close on the heels of the  NDP leadership race. I was just plain exhausted.
 Bottom line: The big blue machine has proven, again, if nothing else, it is a formidable  opponent and is clearly  dedicated to holding onto power.  
In politics; as long as you win:  Actually in politics, WINNING is all there is.  
Prentice knows this, Mandell knows this, the other candidates know this, as should the Wild Rose, who for some  inexplicable reason chose to ignore it.
Finishing third behind the NDP in Edmonton Whitemud is  interesting and somewhat humiliating,  losing Calgary West by 315 votes is a less bitter pill to swallow:  It was  a close race, they had a good candidate but finished 315 votes short of bragging rights.   They scored a moral victory and sent the PC's a message that almost enough people didn't vote for them, and they better watch out because if the right 316 move or die between now and the next general election, this seat will be in play.
There will be some  soul searching about Willy MacBeath and Vitor  Marciano,  the Wildrose dynamic duo responsible for the  hyper-partisan campaign strategy that failed to deliver anything except abject failure.

The Alberta party,  in Calgary Elbow showed what happens when you hire a modern strategist with a penchant for social media to run your campaign: They  lost by 795 votes, but the social media spin was terrific. They lost but they didn't have anything to  lose.
The Green Party  were able to convince a 356 people to waste their votes and 23 people voted for an independent, presumably his immediate family.
While the PC's held the seats, every party except the Wildrose has something to feel good about.
Mayor, oops I mean Minister, Mandell called his victory "kosher" and even though he left about 20% on the table compared to what Hancock used to poll;  he was pleased, with the result, and just to prove that he hasn't changed a bit he  got testy with the reporter who mentioned it.   

No, the real story here is how, yet again the Wildrose managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory by relying on an outdated strategy managed by out of touch zealots:  The Willy and Vitor brain trust are really good at the negative, which in a general election is a proven strategy for them. (Oh wait, no it's not)

Sure the PC's played buy-election:  announcing, schools hospitals and road construction in the constituencies in question, but they have always done that and the Wildrose should have known it was coming:

I do not think the Wildrose played hard enough on this,  I'd have promoted the whole thing as a BUY-ELECTION and kept public tab of how much taxpayer money was being spent and or promised  by the candidates.

But I predict election losses are not quite the end of the story: I keep hearing rumours that more than one Wildrose MLA is in conversation with PC Whip George Vanderberg about crossing the floor the other way. 
Danielle desperately needs to contain her caucus more effectively than she did with Joe Anglin from Rocky Mountain House, where, ultimately, the brain trust  set him up to lose his nomination because he was going to imitate Sarah Palin and go rogue. 
Danielle's public declaration of getting at least 77% in the leadership review is going to be a controlled and somewhat contrived activity, especially if there are changes who aren't Willy and Vitor.

She will get 77%, question is of what?

Politics is a blood sport. Apparently it's not the names on the ballot who control affairs, it's the old boys in support hose who do, or at least think they do. Trouble is they are seldom held to account for screwing up.

The  Wildrose could very well cease to exist as  meaningful opposition after 2016. They keep showing the PC's that Albertans gave them "one last chance", but I doubt very much the Big Blue Machine is worried about the about the official opposition who managed to finish third in two of four buy-election.

It's like there are four dogs in this province, one that knows how to hunt and three who can't be bothered getting off the porch.